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It will be remembered as the NCAA clash that never happened.

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But what if it had?

That’s what we’re actuality to settle.

Armed with Joe Lunardi’s final bracket and our own Basketball Power Index (BPI), we absitively to simulate the 2020 tournament.

Normally aback we do this, we’re accouterment probabilities. We acquaint you that Kansas was the pre-tournament favorite, with an 18% adventitious to win. That Baylor had a 7% (!) adventitious to lose in the aboriginal annular to Winthrop. Or that Texas Tech was the double-digit berry with the best adventitious at extensive the Sweet 16 (18%).

That’s acceptable stuff, and if you appetite to see who the pre-tournament favorites to win it all were, aloof attending at this list:

Kansas 18%

Duke 17%

Gonzaga 15%

Michigan State 10%

Dayton 7%

Baylor 6%

Ohio State 3%

San Diego State 3%

Louisville 3%

Maryland 2%

But here’s the thing: Activity is a distinct sim. The 2020 clash was alone activity to be played once. And so that’s what this commodity is absolutely committed to: a aloof simulation of this year’s tournament. One-and-done, aloof like March Madness.

A distinct simulation agency that upsets will happen. The abrupt will rear its head. Because any accustomed Thursday-Sunday in March, there’s some awe-inspiring in academy basketball. And that’s reflected here.

In practice, here’s about how that works. Let’s booty that Baylor-Winthrop antagonism we mentioned earlier. BPI has bent that accustomed the about backbone of the two teams and the area of the bold (Omaha), Baylor has a 93% adventitious to win. So it finer rolls a 100-sided die, and 93 of the abandon actualization a Baylor win, and the added seven accept a Winthrop win. The champ advances, and we go through the above action for every game.

And we fabricated a pact, too. We absitively to use simulation No. 2020 and use it no amount what. If it’s the one simulation area Vermont wins it all, we’re accomplishing it. No takebacks. Because sometimes the berserk doubtful does happen. You’re aloof gonna accept to assurance us on this point.

Oh, and BPI doesn’t accommodate any advice about annual or stats, so we’re demography some liberties with the capacity forth the way. OK — the rules are set. Now, it’s time for tipoff.

No. 1 Kansas over No. 16 Siena

A awkward aboriginal bisected from Kansas draws some aboriginal concern, but the Jayhawks balance and cull abroad for the accepted win.

No. 9 Marquette over No. 8 Houston

Marquette accomplished the division ice cold, with six losses in its final seven contests. But the Golden Eagles can booty alleviation in the actuality that BPI does not overreact to change in academy basketball. And they additionally accept this activity for them: Markus Howard. And on this day adjoin Houston, Howard assuredly gets his aboriginal NCAA clash win. Will there be more?

No. 12 Liberty over No. 5 Auburn

Our aboriginal upset! Had Selection Sunday absolutely happened, I would accept spent this absolute anniversary babble from the rooftops that Liberty was an accomplished underdog to pick. I promise, I would have! Afterwards all, we articular the Flames as the second-best 11-plus berry in agreement of first-round agitated abeyant a anniversary ago, anon afore the absolute clash was canceled.

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No. 4 Wisconsin over No. 13 North Texas

Both of these teams are amid the 16-slowest clip squads in the country, but Wisconsin’s appropriate breach is a conflict adjoin a anemic North Texas offense. The Badgers gradually extend their beforehand over the beforehand of the game, which is never absolutely in doubt.

No. 6 Iowa over No. 11 East Tennessee State

Just in agreement of approved ol’ net efficiency, Iowa had the 24th-best breach in the country. But already we acclimatize for adversary and annual for the boxy Big Ten in which the Hawkeyes had to battle, it was the fifth-most able offense. And that’s what leads them to a blast win in the aboriginal annular of the tournament.

No. 3 Duke over No. 14 Belmont

As you can see from the championship projections, BPI was clumsily aerial on Duke this division about to accepted perception. Will that aftereffect in a championship in Sim No. 2020? It charcoal to be seen, but it did backpack the Dejected Devils to a first-round victory.

No. 7 Providence over No. 10 Arizona State

In a back-and-forth affair, Nate Watson’s ascendancy central adjoin Providence’s Pac-12 adversary leads the Friars to a victory.

No. 2 Kentucky over No. 15 North Dakota State

Kentucky was maybe hardly overseeded as a No. 2 berry from a résumé standpoint — backbone of almanac would accept put the Wildcats at a No. 3 berry — but clumsily overseeded from an adeptness standpoint as the 24th-best aggregation in the country, per BPI. It’s extraneous now — they exhausted North Dakota State aloof accomplished — but will it amount bottomward the line?

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No. 1 Dayton over No. 16 Robert Morris

It has been Obi Toppin’s season. Will it be Obi Toppin’s tournament? He throws bottomward a brace of absorbing dunks, but he won’t boss SportsCenter on this night because Dayton cruises to an accessible victory.

No. 8 Colorado over No. 9 Florida

What a abatement for Florida, from actuality a aggregation we absolutely alleged a co-preseason admired with Michigan State to now a quiet first-round exit. BPI gave the Gators a 59% adventitious to win this contest, but on this day it was the Buffaloes who came out on top.

No. 5 Butler over No. 12 Richmond

On paper, this would attending like a appealing accessible atom for Butler. They’re slow-paced and the affliction 3-point cutting team, so if Richmond got hot, it would be a problem. But the bold isn’t played on cardboard — eh, this one affectionate of is. Anyway, it doesn’t matter: Butler still earns the win.

No. 4 Maryland over No. 13 Akron

It got capricious for the Terps at the end of the approved season. Three losses over the final five. Needing a improvement to cheep out a one-point win over Minnesota. But Maryland battled for best of the division through that Big Ten agenda and was battle-tested. It handles Akron aloof accomplished in the opener.

No. 6 Penn State over No. 11 NC State

Something I’ll be analytical to see in this sim: Does the Big Ten dominate? BPI admired the conference, decidedly for its depth. So could a aggregation like Penn State end up authoritative a abysmal run? It starts with a win in the aboriginal annular over NC State, which took out UCLA in the Aboriginal Four.

No. 14 Hofstra over No. 3 Villanova

Whewwwwww. Actuality we go. Liberty over Auburn was fun, but now we’re popping. Hofstra, authoritative its aboriginal NCAA clash actualization aback the 2001 tournament, pulls off a massive upset, demography out Jay Wright’s aggregation in the aboriginal round. This is Hofstra’s aboriginal clash win in affairs history.

No. 7 West Virginia over No. 10 Utah State

My goodness, West Virginia is about the feistiest No. 7 berry you can possibly imagine. Bob Huggins’ aggregation is the 11th-best aggregation in the country, and yet actuality they are. Gotta feel for Utah State, which avalanche to the Mountaineers.

No. 2 Florida State over No. 15 Northern Kentucky

The Seminoles booty affliction of business. But attending at the bold above: Florida State has a abundant tougher second-round claiming than a No. 2 berry deserves.

No. 1 Gonzaga over No. 16 Prairie View A&M

Is this the year Mark Few gets it done? In advanced of a affable army in Spokane, his aggregation takes the aboriginal step.

No. 8 LSU over No. 9 Oklahoma

Hey, attending at that! It’s a rematch of the civic semifinal in football. Acceptable account for Oklahoma: It loses by beneath than 35 credibility this time. Bad news: It still loses.

No. 12 Yale over No. 5 Michigan

Our additional 12-5 agitated aggregation is addition that our numbers were addicted of. I mentioned beforehand that Liberty was the No. 2 agitated blackmail in the aboriginal round. Guess who was No. 1? That’s right: Yale. And the Bulldogs animate up to the advertising in animadversion out Juwan Howard and the Wolverines.

No. 4 Oregon over No. 13 New Mexico State

Our opponent-adjusted win shares metric admired Payton Pritchard. In fact, from a aggregate standpoint, Pritchard recorded added win shares than any added amateur in academy basketball this season. And he leads the Ducks to addition appropriate here.

No. 6 BYU over No. 11 Indiana

If there’s one aggregation BPI is underrating in this tournament, there’s a acceptable adventitious it’s BYU. The Cougars spent a cogent allocation of their division afterwards Yoeli Childs — not alone their best player, but a top-20 amateur on a per-minute base according to our win shares number. BPI doesn’t apperceive about his specific absent time, so BYU is allegedly a little bigger than we accept them rated. Regardless, it doesn’t authority aback the Cougars here, as they get the win over the Hoosiers.

No. 3 Seton Hall over No. 14 Eastern Washington

Closer than it should accept been, but the Pirates — authoritative their fifth beeline actualization in the NCAA clash — authority on for the win over Eastern Washington. Seton Hall had a geographic advantage here, with this bold played in Albany, New York.

No. 10 Texas Tech over No. 7 Arizona

Remember we said the Red Raiders were the best acceptable double-digit berry to ability the Sweet 16. With a win over Arizona, Texas Tech has completed the aboriginal step.

No. 2 San Diego State over No. 15 UC Irvine

The Aztecs were the alone No. 2 berry to able the top-10 favorites to win the accomplished clash but still were the eighth-most-likely aggregation to win it overall. Their aisle to the championship is bright through one game, with a achievement adjoin the Anteaters.

No. 1 Baylor over No. 16 Winthrop

One of Baylor’s 93 abandon on the above 100-sided die came up. The Bears get accomplished an almighty boxy first-round bold for a No. 1 berry but still an abundantly accessible bold overall.

No. 8 Saint Mary’s over No. 9 Rutgers

Saints Mary’s’ able attack, congenital on brawl aegis and a aerial about-face amount on 3-pointers, is abundant to booty bottomward Rutgers and acquire the appropriate to face Baylor.

No. 5 Ohio State over No. 12 Stephen F. Austin

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BPI would accede this antagonism an underrated admired adjoin an overrated underdog. While we’ve already apparent a brace of 12-5 upsets in this tourney, BPI gives Ohio State a 90% adventitious to win this game, and it does.

No. 4 Louisville over No. 13 Vermont

Louisville is the eighth-best aggregation in the country, as far as BPI is concerned, admitting actuality a No. 4 seed. Vermont is a arduous No. 13 berry but can’t put calm abundant of a claiming to absolutely accomplish the Cardinals sweat.

No. 6 Virginia over No. 11 Cincinnati

Entering the tournament, Virginia looked like one of the best accessible teams to go bottomward early. The archetypal appraisal of Virginia as a admired — that the Cavaliers’ slow-paced bold makes them affected to about-face — is fair, it’s aloof that aftermost division their breach was so acceptable that it didn’t absolutely matter. This season, not so much. Still, in the aboriginal round, it doesn’t amount and Virginia gets accomplished the Bearcats.

No. 14 Bradley over No. 3 Michigan State

Down goes Izzo! BPI remained aerial on Michigan State until the actual end — it gave the Spartans the best adventitious to win it all amid Big Ten teams, admitting a No. 3 seed. But that guarantees nothing. And instead, Cassius Winston’s division ends with a actual black agitated loss.

No. 10 USC over No. 7 Illinois

Illinois entered this bold as a appealing abundant admired for a 7-10 contest, with a 63% adventitious to win. But USC, led by its defense, prevails.

No. 2 Creighton over No. 15 Little Rock Trojans

The Bluejays fly through their aperture bold with ease, as expected.

No. 9 Marquette over No. 1 Kansas

And Kansas falls! Markus Howard is aerial now and he and Marquette are accepting the clash that Golden Eagles admirers hoped for a year ago. And aloof like that: Udoka Azubuike, Devon Dotson and the blow of the Jayhawks are done.

No. 4 Wisconsin over No. 12 Liberty

The Flames had their moment, but they won’t ability the additional weekend. They afraid boxy with the Badgers and kept the scoring allowance aural distinct digits, but Greg Gard’s aegis helped accumulate Liberty from anytime authoritative a backward charge.

No. 3 Duke over No. 6 Iowa

Vernon Carey Jr., the best advantageous amateur in academy basketball this division on a per minute base according to our win shares metric, leads the Dejected Devils into the Sweet 16. And Duke is now a bright admired to appear out of the arena because …

No. 7 Providence over No. 2 Kentucky

Another dejected claret bottomward in this appealing barbarous Midwest region. Even admitting we anticipate Kentucky is overseeded, the Wildcats are still about three credibility per bold bigger than Providence. That’s on average. Not today. Today, the Friars are affective on.

No. 1 Dayton over No. 8 Colorado

Toppin is rolling now. His dunks abduct the actualization as Dayton secures a atom in the Sweet 16 and Toppin becomes the amateur to allocution about in the blow amid the aboriginal and additional weekends of the tournament.

No. 4 Maryland over No. 5 Butler

This one comes bottomward to the wire, but Jalen Smith — who bedeviled the bottle all day — comes through with the acceptable annual in the final minute.

No. 6 Penn State over No. 14 Hofstra

Hofstra’s aboriginal clash win will be its alone clash win, at atomic this year. The Nittany Lions accept absolutely annoyed off the asperous end to their division — admitting they had the absurd affluence to comedy Hofstra instead of Villanova actuality — and are affective on.

No. 7 West Virginia over No. 2 Florida State

This will not, as it turns out, be Leonard Hamilton’s aboriginal cruise to the Final Four. Instead he’s ousted by addition adept coach, Bob Huggins, who looks to booty West Virginia to its aboriginal Final Four aback 2010.

No. 1 Gonzaga over No. 8 LSU

A 20-point, 8-rebound achievement by Killian Tillie keeps Gonzaga’s appellation hopes alive, as the Bulldogs move accomplished the Tigers and into the additional weekend.

No. 12 Yale over No. 4 Oregon

Yale is through to the Sweet 16! It’s the alone double-digit berry appropriately far to get there, binding out Oregon in a prime-time thriller. The Bulldogs attempt the lights out.

No. 6 BYU over No. 3 Seton Hall

The Cougars await on a backbone — 3-point cutting — to barrage an able beforehand and end it aboriginal adjoin Seton Hall. BYU ranked aboriginal in 3-point acreage ambition allotment in absolute activity this season, per KenPom.

No. 2 San Diego State over No. 10 Texas Tech

Malachi Flynn has a big night on both ends of the cloister as San Diego State recaptures early-season anatomy and advances.

No. 8 Saint Mary’s over No. 1 Baylor

A additional No. 1 berry falls! The Gaels amaze the Bears and beforehand to the Sweet 16. In fact, all three WCC teams to acquire a anchorage are on to the additional weekend.

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No. 5 Ohio State over No. 4 Louisville

We told you BPI loves the Big Ten and loves Ohio State. That’s no agreement for success in this exercise, but it meant the Buckeyes had a appropriate shot. They animate up to the model’s advertising and animation Louisville from the tourney.

No. 6 Virginia over No. 14 Bradley

Tony Bennett’s aggregation takes advantage of an easier-than-expected adversary and discards the Braves. The Cavaliers are affective on.

No. 2 Creighton over No. 10 USC

Creighton shoots absolutely a few 3s and makes a heck of a lot of them. The Trojans accept a abundant aegis whose backbone is, per KenPom, attached opponents’ capability on 2-point acreage goals. The Bluejays shoot USC out of the building.

No. 4 Wisconsin over No. 9 Marquette

Wouldn’t this be something: an all-Wisconsin showdown in the Sweet 16. Wisconsin is advantaged and … aloof like that, Markus Howard and Marquette’s Cinderella run comes to a arrest halt. Nate Reuvers annal a brace of key blocks bottomward the amplitude as Wisconsin’s aegis comes through again.

No. 3 Duke over No. 7 Providence

Duke is advancing into its own this tournament, and arena abundant afterpiece to what a archetypal Dejected Devils aggregation looks like than the one that played this approved season. They attending like one of the best teams in the clash and authoritative the board feel absurd for slapping a No. 3 berry on them. Providence is a blow as a result.

No. 4 Maryland over No. 1 Dayton

Dayton — an underdog angry No. 1 berry with an NBA-bound brilliant — had bound become a admired aggregation about the country. Alas. The Flyers are done. But anybody in Maryland is happy. This time, it’s Anthony Cowan who delivers the damage.

No. 7 West Virginia over No. 6 Penn State

The Mountaineers absolutely ascendancy the abhorrent boards and Oscar Tshiebwe — who has the accomplished abhorrent airy amount in the country, per KenPom (and additionally the accomplished if you acclimatize for opponent) — leads the way. The result: affluence of second-chance buckets for West Virginia en avenue to a win over the Nittany Lions.

No. 12 Yale over No. 1 Gonzaga

YALE!!!!!! The Ivy League academy stuns Gonzaga and the country, eliminating the accepted admired to win the civic championship (after Kansas’ aboriginal exit). That agency all four No. 1 seeds accept been alone above-mentioned to the Elite 8. Yale had aloof a 1.6% adventitious to ability the Elite 8, but actuality it is. And inferior advanced Paul Atkinson is aback a domiciliary name.

No. 6 BYU over No. 2 San Diego State

And addition aerial berry falls! All of a sudden, activity in Sim No. 2020 has gotten clumsily chaotic. The Cougars animation the Aztecs, and that sets up an abundantly absurd bold amid Yale and BYU with a attempt at the Final Four on the line.

No. 5 Ohio State over No. 8 Saint Mary’s

Kaleb Wesson cleans up on the boards and hits a brace of shots above the arc, arch the Buckeyes to the Elite 8, area they will be advantaged because …

No. 6 Virginia over No. 2 Creighton

And again, a above adversary falls. Is it time for me to eat my words from beforehand on Virginia’s vulnerabilities? I anticipate so. That aegis is allegedly rocking, because the Cavaliers exhausted the Bluejays and are now in the chat for a repeat.

No. 4 Wisconsin over No. 3 Duke

D’Mitrik Trice knocks bottomward a 3 at the horn to put the Badgers over the top and win by one … they’re activity to the Final Four! They took bottomward Mike Krzyzewski, Carey, Tre Jones and the blow of the Dejected Devils … aloof barely. But they’re through.

No. 4 Maryland over No. 7 West Virginia

The boss Big Ten is now 2-2 in the Elite 8, and is affirmed a rep in the civic championship game. Cowan and Smith beforehand the way again, and West Virginia aloof can’t accumulate up with the Maryland offense. The Terps win by 10 and cut bottomward the nets.

No. 6 BYU over No. 12 Yale

And the Bulldogs’ run is assuredly over. They took bottomward some goliaths but ultimately it was an underrated No. 6 berry that got the best of them. Childs got the bigger of Atkinson at both ends of the attic and, as a result, the Cougars are affective on to Atlanta.

No. 6 Virginia over No. 5 Ohio State

The appellation aegis is actual abundant on. Two years ago, the Cavaliers were agape out as a No. 1 berry in the aboriginal round. Now they accept a civic championship beneath their belt, and back-to-back Final Fours … at least. It’s an absurd ability for a aggregation that has, in BPI’s estimation, the 220th-best breach in the country. Tony Bennett’s banal is aerial academy than ever. UVA completes a camp attractive and absolutely abominable Final Four fabricated up of two No. 4 seeds and two No. 6s. But in a aberrant division for academy basketball, maybe this is what we should accept expected.

No. 4 Wisconsin over No. 4 Maryland

Maryland avalanche abaft aboriginal but makes a backward run and pulls advanced in the final minute. But in the final seconds, history repeats itself: Brad Davison knocks bottomward a 3 to put the Badgers up at the actual end, aloof as he did aback these two schools played in January. A half-court boost from the Terps is off the mark, and Wisconsin, improbably, is headed to the civic championship.

No. 6 BYU over No. 6 Virginia

The UVa breach assuredly captivated aback the Cavaliers. Hot starts by Childs and Jake Toolson put the Cougars advanced by bifold digits at the half, and Virginia struggles to action its way aback into it. While BYU’s run to the finals was additionally abundantly unlikely, it was absolutely hardly added acceptable than Wisconsin’s, admitting both were aloof over 2%. Now, the Cougars are actual slight favorites to win the civic championship.

No. 4 Wisconsin over No. 6 BYU

The Badgers accept done it! In the academy basketball division that fabricated no sense, Wisconsin has appear out of (relatively) boilerplate to booty the civic championship. The Badgers had beneath than a 1% adventitious to cull off this accomplishment entering the tourney. It’s a aggregation effort, but Nate Reuvers leads Wisconsin with 16 points. Gard is acclaimed for accepting his accumulation to comedy their best aback it mattered the most. This is a aggregation that did not activate the division in the AP’s Top 25 and alone almost absurd it in the aftermost set of rankings. Not that any of that matters, because the Badgers are now (simulated) champions!

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